2025 women's March Madness: UConn vs. South Carolina national championship predictions

South Carolina might be the defending national champion but that fact isn't earning the Gamecocks any bonus points from oddsmakers -- or bettors. In the team's hunt for a second straight title and third in four years, South Carolina is a 7.5-point underdog to UConn for Sunday's national championship game.

And that number is two points bigger than where it opened at.

With 60% of bets and 77% of the handle at BetMGM favoring UConn, the line has been bet up from 5.5 points. Bettors apparently expect a big Huskies win and Paige Bueckers to be the catalyst, picking her to go over 24.5 points as the game's most popular prop.

Of course, that kind of lopsided action against a coach like Dawn Staley creates some value on the other side where South Carolina bettors are pouncing on the moneyline, which ballooned from +195 opening odds. The Gamecocks have drawn 65% of the tickets on the moneyline at BetMGM and 61% of the handle, including bets of $25,000 at +320 odds and $100,000 at +275.

The double-sided action makes sense. If you like UConn, your best bet is on the spread. The Huskies won their previous five tournament games by an average of almost 35 points, including double-digit wins over No. 1 seeds in their last two games. They aren't phased by the number in front of South Carolina's name, and besides, there isn't much value in betting on UConn's moneyline.

On the other hand, if you like South Carolina, the moneyline is where you'll find the most bang for your buck. If the Gamecocks are good enough to stay within the spread, they're good enough to seal the deal considering the amount of championship experience across the roster.

That's the direction I'm leaning. When these teams met in February, South Carolina lost by 29 despite holding Bueckers to 12 points on 3-of-12 shooting. While I don't expect her to struggle as much Sunday, the Gamecocks have the individual defenders to make her life difficult and I don't expect the Huskies to pick up the slack by making nearly 50% of their threes like they did in February. I also don't expect South Carolina to have the same offensive struggles -- not with the chip the team has been carrying since that loss.

That said, I'm chasing the moneyline value. We're getting plus-odds on a 1-seed against a 2-seed in a national championship. Though UConn passes the eye test with flying colors, telling my brain the Huskies are the logical choice as the best team, my gut says roll with Staley's crew. South Carolina is a champion with an underdog pedigree. That's a dangerous combination.

Prince's Pick: South Carolina moneyline