2025 NCAA men's basketball championship: Florida vs. Houston odds, spread, predictions

Does defense win championships? Houston is putting that theory to test in this year's Final Four. After surviving Duke and the Kenpom No. 1-rated offense Saturday, Houston's top-rated defense gets Florida and the No. 2-rated offense Monday in the national championship.

If round one was a sign of things to come, the Cougars are a good bet as 1.5-point underdogs to hang their first banner in program history. There's one major difference between Duke and what Houston will see from Florida, though. The Gators are a lot more grown.

Not to take anything away from Houston, because the team fought to the end Saturday and earned its spot in the title game, but there's no denying the Cougars were fortunate to come out on top in a game they trailed Duke by nine points with two minutes left. At one point, with under a minute remaining, the Blue Devils had a better than 90% chance to win, according to ESPN's win probability chart, and they blew it.

Duke's inability to seal the deal had a lot to do with youth and inexperience, in my opinion; from players down to the coaching staff. Florida doesn't have that same problem, which is why I'm taking the Gators to win and cover the spread.

Prince's Pick: Florida -1.5

Of the nine players to see the floor for Duke, five were freshman -- including their two best players and the generational talent they lean on in the clutch, Cooper Flagg -- and one was a sophomore. Only one senior played significant minutes. Compared to Houston's lineup where seven of eight players were either a senior or junior, the Blue Devils were boys in a game against men. Even Houston's head coach, Kelvin Sampson, has 30 years of coaching experience over Duke's Jon Scheyer -- including two more Final Fours.

Those advantages are muted a bit against Florida, which has a better blend of experience and youth. The Gators' three-leading scorers are all seniors, including guard Walter Clayton Jr., who might be having the best tournament of any player. With 30 points in consecutive games, including 34 to help Florida top Auburn on Saturday, he's much more prepared to close a tight game against a great defense than any Duke player was.

With the spread being so small, that's likely what it will take to beat Houston. A steady hand throughout the game, and a clutch presence in the end. Because of their combination of firepower and experience, I like the Gators to get the job done.

Predicted score: Florida 78, Houston 73